Forecasting tobacco smoking recurrence in lung TB patients

Abstract

Aim of study: Identify tobacco smoking (TS) recurrence predictors in lung TB patients. Маterials and Methods: In all, the results of over the phone consulting on tobacco smoking cessation with 335 smoking TB patients (age from 18 to 70). Inclusion criteria: tobacco smoking in the course of 3 years and longer. Exclusion criteria: psychic diseases and disorders, аlcohol or narcotic drugs’ addiction. Number of cigarettes per day, duration of TS, nicotine dependence (ND) degree based on Fagerstrom test, motivation for smoking cessation, and anxiety and depression markers by HADS score were defined in all the patients. The smoking patients were offered over the phone consulting throughout the first month of smoking cessation in case they cease (time for consulting sessions coordinated with patients). Effectiveness of cessation was evaluated after 6 months. The patients were aggregated into the following groups: those who successfully ceased smoking and have not smoked for 6 months and longer (Group 1), and those who resumed TS after treatment (Group 2). Data was statistically processed with the help of SPSS programme.

Results. Most of the contact patients were male (83%), median age 41.0+0.3 years. They smoked from 3 tо 60 cigarettes (23.0+1.6 cig.) per day in the course of 3 — 57 years (25.8+2.8 years). Average number of cigarettes per day, duration of TS, degree of nicotine dependence, and motivation for TS cessation did not significantly differ between the groups. High numbers of cigarettes per day (more than 15 cig.) were more frequently seen in Group 2 vs Group 1: 64% vs 40% (?2 =6.814, р=0.010), they also had higher values on depression score (р<0,01). The model for forecasting TS recurrence was built by way of multifactorial discriminant analysis, and included the most informative signs for differentiation between the groups: depression and anxiety score values, and number of cigarettes per day. The results of checks confirmed the forecast accuracy, 87.2% on the learning curve, and 83.0% at control check. The sensitivity of a newly developed method for TS recurrence among TB patients amounts to 73%, specificity to 96%.

Conclusion. The study of smoke cessation in lung TB patients demonstrated the importance of depressive and anxiety disorders on the way to successful smoking cessation. The developed model for forecasting tobacco smoking recurrence allows to identify the patients with high risk of such recurrence that need additional consulting and support.