Prognosis of changes in numbers of TB cases in countries with high TB burden

Abstract

The concept of the Global TB burden was introduced by WHO in 1999 basing on estimated numbers of TB patients in different countries. 80% of all new TB case in the world per year occurred in 22 countries, including the Russian Federation, with high burden of TB. Decrease of the TB registered incidence is observed in the Russian Federation during last few years. Extrapolation of the2008-2012 years’ of the estimated global data up to2020 demonstrated the Russian Federation has a good chance to leave the group of High Burden Countries formally in 2018. Formation of the High Burden Countries group reflects rather abstract economic notion of the disease «burden», which is actually a political notion, and, generally, does not reflect more urgent for people all over the world notion of the risk to develop the disease when leaving in a particular country or visiting a particular country.