Estimated prevalence of tuberculosis with multiple and extensive drug resistance by mathematical modeling in the prisons of the Russian Federation

Abstract

The article contains statistical data on the coverage of various registration groups with XDR tests, as well as the detection of cases of extensively drug-resistant tuberculosisamong persons tested in the XDR in the penitentiary system of the Russian Federation. In the mathematical model, the estimated number of patients with multidrug-resistant and extensively drug-resistant tuberculosis in the penitentiary system of Russia is calculated, as well as the expected value of the prevalence of tuberculosis with MDR and XDR mycobacterium tuberculosis. The obtained model can be used to plan resource support for the fight against tuberculosis with multiple and extensively drug resistance in the penitentiary system of the Russian Federation.